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Wednesday, January 04, 2017

How Big was the Trump Rally?

After the U.S. election on November 8, the U.S. stock market began to rally.  Many called this the Trump rally, though it's not clear how much had to due with Trump's vague grand proclamations, and how much had to do with the fact that Republicans had also taken both branches of Congress.

How much value did the market gain after the elections?  According to the Wilshire 5000 index, which tracks the total value of the U.S. stock market, the market's value increased from 22,133 on November 8, to a peak of 23,756 on December 21 -- an increase of 7%, or about $1.6 trillion in market value.

To put that in perspective, that's somewhere around the 2016 GDP of Canada, about half of the 2016 budget deficit, or $5,000 for every man, woman and child in the U.S.

Which sectors in the market went up the most?  Financials, by far.  According to this article at marketwatch.com, financials went up by 10.7%, with industrials a distant second at 5.7%.  Ostensibly, the financials went up because of talk of repealing some or all of the Dodd-Frank regulation--especially the Volcker rule that limits the amount of trading a bank can do for its own account-- as well as rate increases by the Fed that came in December.

Interesting that a market that we're told values "certainty" should go up on the election of an untested leader with no political experience, promoting fiscally irresponsible and protectionist policies.  But the post-crisis regulatory regime has been a huge burden on the banks, and the inertia of Congress has been a fiscal burden on the whole country.  If the Republicans can get through popular improvements like tax simplification and sensible infrastructure spending it will be an improvement.  Let's see what happens after January 20.